Japan’s Peak Population

The Japanese population peaked around 2010 with 128.1 million people. So far the population has only decreased slightly (to 126.5 in 2020). But the decline is accelerating. 

Population collapse of Japan

By 2050, 106 million people are expected to live in Japan and by 2100 just 75 million. This means that in 90 years the population will decrease by 53 million people - over half a million people a year or more than one person every second around the clock.

Not a typical Asian case

The expected population of Japan in 2100 of 75 million people is about 8 million people LOWER than the population in 1950. In the same period, the population of two other Asian island countries - Indonesia and the Philippines - have quite different population projections. 

• The population of the Philippines is expected to increase from 21 million in 1950 to 169 million in 2100. An 800 percent increase
• The population of Indonesia is expected to increase from 83 million people in 1950 to 243 million in 2100. A 300 percent increase.

Not a typical case at all

Among the ten most populous countries in the world, Russia and Japan are the only two countries where the populations are expected to decrease in the coming decades.

Why is the population declining?

Not surprisingly, low birth rates is the main reason for the development. Japan's fertility rate (the number of children born by each woman in her lifetime) has been below the replacement threshold of 2.1 since 1974 and reached a historic low of 1.26 in 2005. In 2016 the rate was 1.4. In addition to the low birth rates, Japan has almost no immigration.

Young people in Japan stopped having sex… say WHAT?

It sounds completely absurd but many young people in Japan has lost the interest in sex. 45 percent of young Japanese women 16 to 24 years of age are ‘not interested in or despise sexual contact’. More than a quarter of the young Japanese men feel the same way.

Very high life expectancy

With 83.7 years Japan has the longest overall life expectancy of any country in the world. Women on average live 86.8 years and men 80.5 years.

An aging population

The combination of low birth rates and a very high life expectancy has as a consequence that Japan's population is aging faster than in any other nation. In 2000, 17.3 percent were over 65 years old, in 2017 the number was 27.4 percent, and by 2060, more than 40 percent of the population is expected to be over the age of 65. 

To compare, in Nigeria less than 3 percent of the population have been above 65 years old since the 1950s. In China, 10.8 percent was above 65 in 2015.

A country of mountains and forests

75 percent of Japan’s land area is made up of mountains and Japan has a forest cover rate of 68.5 percent. The only other developed countries with so much forest cover are Finland and Sweden.

But people live in the cities

Since so much of the country is made up of mountains and forests, most of the population live in urban areas. Over 90 percent of Japanese live in cities and Japan has 12 cities with over a million people. The largest are:

• Tokyo: 8.9 million
• Yokohama: 3.7 million
• Osaka: 2.7 million

The Japanese Economy

With a nominal GDP of $4.9 trillion, Japan is the third largest economy in the world after the United States and China. By 2030 Japan is projected to be fourth and by 2050 fifth - overtaken by India and Indonesia.

Largest public debt in the world

In 2016, Japan's public debt was more than 230 percent of its annual gross domestic product. This is the largest public debt of any nation in the world. Greece and Italy follow well behind with debts of 182 and 133 percent of GDP.

The middle class of Japan

The Japanese population enjoys a high standard of living with almost 90 percent of the population considering themselves part of the middle class. With a GDP per capita measured in purchasing power of $42.6 thousands, Japan ranks 28th in the world. This is just behind countries such as the UK and France and ahead of several western European countries such as Spain and Italy.

Happiness lacking behind of the Japanese population

Japan is a rich country in terms of income and materialistic wealth. But the level of Happiness is lower in Japan than what would normally be expected. The UN World Happiness Report ranks the population of Japan as the 54th most happy people in the world. Well behind the majority of western/developed nations.

High suicide rates

Japan has a relatively high suicide rate compared to other countries. Main motives include work-related depression and of work-related suicides, the most common reason is overwork.

Labor force of Japan

Japan’s labor force is estimated to be 62.7 million people. Most people work in the service (69.8 percent) or industrial sector (26.2 percent). Only 3.9 percent works in agriculture.

Main export goods

Main export goods of Japan include cars, machinery, and electronics. Cars alone make up over 14 percent of total exports.

Environmental issues in Japan

Fossil fuels dependency

With almost 95 percent of its energy produced by burning fossil fuels, Japan is one of the most fossil fuel dependent countries in the world. As late as in 2015, more than 40 coal-fired power plants were planned or under construction in Japan.

Nota bene

The UN framework to reduce greenhouse gas emissions was signed in the Japanese city of Kyoto in 1997. It is known as the Kyoto Protocol.

Waste burning

In addition to burning a lot of coal, Japan is also the world’s biggest waste incinerator. The country burns almost two thirds of its waste and up to 70 percent of the world's waste incinerators are located in Japan causing high levels of dioxin in the air.

Environmental Footprint of the Japanese population

According to the Global Footprint Network, if everyone on the planet consumed like the average Japanese consumer we would need 3 planets to support us. Put differently, in a given year we would run out of natural resources by 5 May if the entire world population had a similar ecological footprint.