CO2-emissions NOT going down

Global emissions of carbon dioxide have increased constantly since around 1800. Then between 2014 and 2016, global CO2-emissions were mainly unchanged giving hope that emissions were on the way to be reduced. But then emissions began to rise again in 2017 as well as in 2018 and 2019. In 2018, CO2-emissions grew faster than at any time since 2010-11.

We are heading in the wrong direction

So just to be clear: Despite all the good intentions and the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2016 with the purpose of reducing CO2-emissions, emissions are still going up. The Paris Agreement aims to keep the rise of global temperatures to 2 degrees celsius in this century - or, if possible, to 1.5 degrees. This will require huge changes. With current policies we are heading for a 3.7 degree Celsius increase by 2100.

The greenhouse effect

A greenhouse gas is capable of absorbing infrared radiation, thereby trapping heat in the Earth’s atmosphere. This is known as the greenhouse effect and ultimately leads to global warming. CO2 is one of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

How much do we need to reduce CO2-emissions?

How big reductions in CO2-emissions are needed to limit the rise in global temperatures? According to the UN Environment Programme, emissions must fall by 25 % before 2030 to keep increases within 2 degrees by 2100. 55 % reductions before 2030 are needed to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees.

CO2-concentrations in the atmosphere going up too fast

CO2-emissions from human activities have caused the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere to go up from around 275 parts per million (ppm) before the industrial revolution to over 410 in 2020. A 50 % increase.

According to the UN, greenhouse gas concentrations are rising far too quickly to limit global warming to 1.5 C.

[INSERT CO2 conc]

Global temperature

The average global temperature in 2019 was about 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. And temperatures keep going up. With current trends, there is little hope to limit increases to 2 degrees. Even 3 degrees will be a challenge:

“There is no way for Earth to stay below 3 C without large-scale emissions capture and storage, in addition to massive emissions reduction”.

- Professor Pete Strutton, University of Tasmania.

It’s not only about CO2

Greenhouse gases trap heat and make the planet warmer. CO2 is a greenhouse gas but there are many other, and stronger greenhouse gases than CO2. The primary greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere include:

• Water vapor: The main greenhouse gas, contributing 36-72 % of the greenhouse effect.
• Carbon dioxide: The main contribution to the greenhouse effect by human activities.
• Methane: A very powerful greenhouse gas that is 28 times more potent than carbon dioxide. The levels of methane have increased 170 % since the industrial revolution
• Ozone: Contributing around 5 % of global warming and has seen a 42 % increase since 1750.
• Nitrous oxide: An extremely powerful greenhouse gas with a warming potential 265 times higher than carbon.

Greenhouse gas emissions could increase from 55 gigatons of CO2 equivalents (GtCO2e) in 2019 to over 80 GtCO2e in 2050 - an almost 50 percent increase.

Causes of CO2-emissions

CO2-emissions are mostly a result of burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas. In 2018, emission of CO2 from fossil fuels were:

• Coal: 14.7 billion tons
• Oil: 12.4 billion tons
• Gas: 7.5 billion tons

The main CO2-emitting sectors:

• Electricity and heat production: 49.0%
• Transport: 20.5%
• Manufacturing & construction industries: 20.0%
• Other sectors: 10,5%

Top CO2-emitting countries:

The top five CO2-emitting countries are (in megatons):

• China: 10065
• USA: 5416
• India: 2654
• Russia: 1711
• Japan: 1162

Deforestation and climate change

Deforestation is a main contributor to climate change and the second largest human source of CO2-emissions after fossil fuel combustion. Emissions from deforestation are somewhat “indirect” because deforestation results in less CO2 absorbed by trees. Deforestation accounts for 10-15 % of CO2-emissions globally. The number used to be closer to 20 % but has gone down mainly because carbon emissions from fossil fuels have gone up - not because the level of deforestation has decreased. 

A few more facts on the link between deforestation and climate change:

• Forests store over a trillion tons of the world’s carbon. That's almost 42 % of all CO2-emissions caused by human activity in the pre-industrial era.
• Deforestation is responsible for more greenhouse gas emissions than all the world’s cars, trucks, planes and ships combined.
• Deforestation emits more CO2 than all EU-countries combined.

The meat industry and climate change

The meat industry (also referred to as the livestock sector) is responsible for about 14.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. That means that the industry produces more emissions than the transportation industry - meaning all cars, planes, trains and ships combined.

And there are no signs that this will change: Global consumption of meat is expected to rise 75 % by 2050 (compared to 2011) and global demand for livestock products in general could double by 2050.

The main sources of greenhouse gas emissions from livestock are: the production and processing of feed and methane from digestion (farts!).

“Every four pounds of beef you eat contributes to as much global warming as flying from New York to London”

- The Guardian, 8 October 2019.

The joker: Thawing of the Arctic permafrost

Permafrost means that the ground remains permanently frozen and permafrost soils holds a lot of CO2 - almost 1.6 trillion tons.

Disturbingly, the Arctic permafrost is thawing. And much faster than earlier expected. Permafrost in the Canadian Arctic is thawing 70 years earlier than predicted, indicating that the global climate crisis is accelerating even faster than scientists had feared.

How to reduce CO2-emissions?

We have to eat much less meat and stop chopping down the world forests. 

As the production of energy from fossil fuels is the main cause of CO2-emissions, the world needs to start generating energy from renewable sources. And quickly. This is possible as the sun could power the world many times over!