India soon to overtake China as most populous country

The population of India crossed the one billion people mark in 2000. India is expected to take over China as the most populous country in the world by 2027 and be the first country to reach 1.5 billion people (by 2030).

Population history

In the year 0 India had a population of around 60 million. For many years population growth was modest and India did not hit 100 million people before around 1500. 200 million was reached around 1820 and 300 million around 1905. From then, population growth in India took off. During the 1900s the population grew almost 350 percent to reach 1 billion in 2000. 

The Republic of India 

India has 36 states or so-called union territories. 21 with over 10 million people. The largest, Uttar Pradesh, has a population of 200 million people.

Most populous cities in India

India has 46 cities with over a million people. The three largest are Mumbai with 12.4 million inhabitants, Delhi with 11.0 million, and Bangalore with 8.4 million.

Life and death in India

The median age in India is 27.9 years which is 2.5 years below the world average of 30.4 years. India has a fertility rate of 2.4 and life expectancy is 67.5 years - 66.1 for men and 68.9 for women.

Labor force of India

India has the second largest working population in the world with 487 million people. 52 percent works in the agricultural sector, 14 percent in industry and 34 percent in the service sector.

GDP of India

In 2017, India was the 7th largest economy in the world with an estimated GDP of $2.4 trillion. But the economy in India is growing fast. In 2030, India will be the 3rd largest economy after China and the US. By 2050, India is expected to be close to taking over the second place from the US. 

Main export goods

The main export goods of India include gems & jewelry, petroleum & petro products, and agricultural products. Diamonds alone account for almost 10 percent of India’s export. 

Purchasing power of the population

Measured by the purchasing power of the average citizen, India is still a poor country. The country ranks 122nd of the world’s countries in terms of GDP per capita measured in purchasing power parity in 2017 - behind countries such as Swaziland and Libya and only just ahead of Angola and the Congo.

A consumer powerhouse

India is a poor country but the world’s fastest-growing large economy. India’s middle class is expected to grow from 50 million people in 2010 to 475 million by 2030. Together with China, India will power middle-class consumerism in the coming decades.

Environmental consequences of a booming Indian consumer population

The economic boom of India does not happen without consequences.

The Indian water crisis

India is already in a state of chronic lack of water. Over half of India faces high to extremely high water stress. The decline in groundwater levels in northern India is more severe than anywhere else on the planet. The loss of groundwater is so extreme that it is visible from outer space by NASA satellites.

Lacking clean water

Most of the scarce water resources in India are heavily polluted. Major sources of pollution are untreated sewage, agriculture, and unregulated industry. In some areas drinking water is polluted by pesticides and other chemicals.

Worst air pollution on the planet

India recently had the doubtful honor of becoming the most air polluted place in the world causing the death of over a million people every year. 

Global Warming

India is the world’s third largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions but has relatively low emissions per capita (1.4 tons of carbon dioxide per person compared to 17 tons in the United States). The massive growth of the consumer economy in India in the coming decades will put further pressure on greenhouse gas emissions unless alternatives are found. The current destruction of forests on a massive scale in India is not exactly helping. 

Environmental Footprint of India

Despite these important environmental challenges, the ecological footprint of the average person in India is still very small compared to richer countries. Currently, the consumption in India is within the limits of the world’s biocapacity. India currently uses the equivalence of 1.16 global hectares per person as defined by the Global Footprint Network. With a world-average biocapacity of 1.73 global hectares per person, this is within planetary limits. To compare, if everyone on Earth lived like the average American consumer we would need more than 5 planet Earths to support us.