What is the Population of China?

The population of China will grow relatively slowly from 1.44 billion in 2020 to 1.46 in 2031 where it will peak. After a decade of rapid population growth, the population of China will then remain relatively stable until 2040 and from there decline sharply to reach 1 billion by 2100.

Chinese population to peak in 2031

The population of China (officially the People's Republic of China) has grown from about 680 million people in 1952 to about 1.44 billion people in 2020. The population is expected to peak in 2031 with 1.464 billion people. The 1 billion mark was hit for the first time around 1982 and will be hit again by 2100.

Losing the top spot

Throughout recorded history China has been the most populous country in the world. But India is expected to take over this spot by 2024. By 2100, India’s population is expected to be a massive 660 million people larger than China’s - 1.66 billion against China’s 1 billion. 

Most populous cities of China

China has 10 cities with over 10 million people, 21 cities with over 5 million inhabitants, and an astonishing 145 cities with over a million people. The most populous cities by urban area population are:

1. Shanghai: 24.5 million
2. Beijing: 22.5 million
3. Guangzhou: 19.8 million

Massive decline in the Chinese fertility rate

China has a fertility rate of 1.6 children per woman. In 1950 the Chinese fertility rate was 6.67. The one-child policy has had a major role in the decline. It was introduced in 1979 and implied that people were fined for having more than one child - in some cases two if the first born was a girl. The policy began to be phased in 2015.

An ageing population

The median age in China is 37.4 years (36.5 years for men and 38.4 for women). The world average is 30.4 years. On average Chinese people live to be 75.4 years old. Men 74.0 and women 77.0

Labor force population

The Chinese labor force is the largest in the world and consists of 803.6 million people. 29.5 percent works in agriculture, 29.9 percent in the industrial sector, and 40.6 percent with services. The main exports goods of China include electronics, machinery, and textiles & furniture.

Second largest economy in the world

The Chinese economy is second only to the US in terms of GDP. In 2017, the Chinese economy produced goods and services with a total value of $11.9 trillion. 

Soon to be the largest economy in the world

China will take over the top spot as the world’s largest economy from the US. It’s only a question of when. Estimates on the timing vary but most likely it will happen somewhere between 2025 and 2030. A study by PwC puts the US GDP to $23.5 trillion in 2030 and the Chinese to $26.5 trillion.  

Purchasing power of the Chinese population

In terms of purchasing power for the average citizen, China is close to the world average with $16,600 a year (gross domestic product at purchasing power parity per capita).

Poverty in China

An estimated 11.1 percent of the Chinese population lives below the poverty line (having less than $3.10 per day).

Stable population count but rapid change

The Chinese population is now relatively stable. It is expected to grow from 1,376 to 1,416 billion people between 2015 and 2030. But behind these numbers huge changes are taking place. One is the explosive growth of the Chinese consumer class.

A rising Chinese consumer society

Even though the population of China increases only slowly the number of "consumers" will continue to increase massively in the coming years. By 2022 over half a billion people in China will be considered middle class. That’s more people than the TOTAL population of the US, Germany, the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand combined. By 2030, around one billion people in China could be middle class — as much as 70% of its projected population. 

Working its way up

The working population in China is already larger than those of the US and Europe combined. China’s consumer economy will grow by around 50 pct. between 2015 and 2020 reaching $6.5 trillion - bigger than Japan, Germany and France put together. 

Powered by coal!

Most of the power needed to feed the development is generated by coal plants. China almost burns as much coal as the rest of the world combined. 113 out of the 200 largest coal power stations in the world are located in China. 

Not without consequences

The economic growth in China has massive effects on the environment. In some cities, air pollution is so heavy that it cannot be measured using normal standards. Of the ten most air polluted cities in the world seven are located in China. In addition, China’s dependence on coal is a major driver of climate change.

Lack of water - especially clean water

China faces a problem of severe water shortages and pollution. More than half of China's surface water is so polluted it cannot even be cleaned to make it drinkable. One fourth of water resources is so contaminated it can't even be used in industry. In the Zhejiang province Chen Zengmin has offered $40,000 to any local environmental official who will swim in a local river black from wastewater from a nearby shoe factory. The $40,000 was never claimed. The local officials instead beat him up and smashed his place.

Putting traditional farming at risk

Many farmers in China depend on underground water for their crops. But up to 90 percent of this water is polluted. Intense water use (including by industry) means that about one quarter of China is now under desertification. This has forced many farmers to leave their land and traditional way of living creating a generation of eco-migrants.

Cancer villages

In some places in China the pollution has become so massive that simply living there is a cancer risk. These places have become known as “cancer villages” and are characterised by the presence of heavy polluting industry releasing known carcinogenic chemicals such as cadmium and zinc into the air and water.

Environmental Footprint

The ecological footprint of China is estimated to 3.7 global hectares per person meaning that we would need 2.1 planets if everyone consumed like the average Chinese consumer. Put differently Earth Overshoot day is 23 June for China meaning this is the day the world would have used up available resources

Increasing demands from the Chinese people to act

Understandably, the Chinese public is increasingly concerned about the environmental developments. And while the Government has traditionally denied, there are signs that official China is acknowledging problems (including the existence 'cancer villages) and the 'need for change. A Chinese desertification control officer told the Guardian: "We've made progress, but we face a daunting challenge. It may take China 300 years."